Elon Musk Reaches a Fortune of 1,000 Trillion Won / SpaceX Investment Strategy
Key checkpoints before the listing preparations (MUST KNOW)
Rumors of a SpaceX listing have persisted for years, but concrete signs (tender offers, revenue growth) have recently been detected. Here are 3 key points you must understand before investing.
A. The possibility of a Starlink spin-off listing rather than a listing of SpaceX as a whole
Elon Musk has said several times that he has no plans to list the core SpaceX business (rocket manufacturing and launch) until the ultimate goal of Mars exploration is achieved. Therefore, the listing the market expects is most likely a spin-off in which only the satellite internet division, Starlink, is separated and listed as a separate corporation.
B. Corporate value and tender offers
As in the article you shared, SpaceX periodically conducts tender offers in which shares held by employees and early investors are sold. The corporate value set through these already reaches hundreds of billions of dollars. When it lists, the IPO price is likely to be set very high, and the initial barrier to entry may be high.
C. Cash flow turning positive
A key condition for listing is stable cash flow. Starlink is passing its break-even point as its subscribers grow explosively around the world. This is the strongest signal that a listing is imminent.
Realistic ways for ordinary investors to prepare
Since the listing application (S-1) has not yet been filed, here is a step-by-step strategy that ordinary individual investors can prepare.
Step 1: Secure an overseas stock account and dollars (basic preparation)
Since it is almost certain to list directly on the U.S. market, opening a securities account that allows U.S. stock trading is essential. As the offering is expected to be large, it is a good idea to exchange dollars in advance when the exchange rate is favorable.
Step 2: Use indirect investment products (before listing)
It is currently very difficult for individuals to directly buy SpaceX, which is an unlisted stock (U.S. accredited investor requirements apply). Instead, there is a workaround strategy of investing in funds or companies that hold SpaceX stakes.
- Destiny Tech100 (DXYZ): A listed closed-end fund whose portfolio holds unlisted tech companies such as SpaceX and OpenAI. (Caution: there is a premium risk that the share price is excessively expensive relative to the actual asset value)
- Alphabet (Google): Made a large investment in SpaceX in the past and holds a stake.
Step 3: Establish a strategy for buying right after listing (after listing)
Volatility is extreme in the early days of an IPO. Rather than buying at market price on listing day, a long-term strategy of entering once the share price stabilizes after the lock-up expires (when restrictions on sales by executives and employees are lifted, usually 3~6 months later) may be safer.
Analysis of key beneficiary and related stocks
The growth of SpaceX raises valuations across the aerospace industry as a whole. Companies that have direct business relationships with Starlink, or that are competitive in the space industry, in particular benefit.
Domestic stocks (Korea)
| Stock name | Relevance and analysis |
|---|---|
| Intellian Technologies | [Key beneficiary] Develops and produces antennas for low-Earth-orbit satellite communications. It has strong partnerships with global satellite communications operators such as Starlink and OneWeb, and has the highest real revenue linkage. |
| Kencoa Aerospace | It has a record of being registered as a SpaceX vendor (supplier), and supplies special materials for space launch vehicles. |
| Satrec Initiative | A satellite system developer acquired by Hanwha Aerospace, with excellent technology in satellite buses and payloads. |
| AP Satellite | Manufactures satellite communication terminals and components. It tends to move resiliently when a domestic aerospace theme forms. |
Overseas stocks (U.S.)
| Stock name | Ticker | Relevance and analysis |
|---|---|---|
| Tesla | TSLA | [Psychological leader] Its share price tends strongly to move in sync simply because Elon Musk is its CEO. Technology sharing with SpaceX also takes place. |
| Rocket Lab | RKLB | It is regarded as SpaceX's only potential competitor. It is likely to rise together when money flows into the space sector as a whole. |
| Iridium Communications | IRDM | An established leader in satellite communications. As Starlink grows the market, it could be re-rated within a cooperative or competitive landscape. |
Summary
The listing of SpaceX (to be precise, Starlink) will be the biggest event in the global stock market.
- Priority: Among domestic related stocks, add the actual component suppliers (such as Intellian Technologies) to your watchlist first.
- Risk: Be wary of overheating in the early days of the listing, and for workaround investments such as DXYZ, be sure to check that the premium is not too high.
- Conclusion: Rather than relying on mere expectations, it is recommended to continuously monitor Starlink subscriber trends and news of reaching break-even to time your entry.