Obesity Market and Bio/Pharma Analysis Report

Obesity Market and Bio/Pharma Analysis Report

January Market Trends and Performance Review

 

📉 Recent share price trends (1.1 ~ 1.18)

 

  • Domestic weakness vs. overseas strength: During the JPM Healthcare Conference, Hong Kong biotech (+13.4%) and U.S. biotech (XBI +2.2%) were strong, but the domestic pharmaceutical sector index posted a weak return of -9.9%pt relative to the KOSPI.
 
  • Deepening polarization: With no catalyst for a broad market rally, only a handful of stocks with clear momentum rose, such as Samsung Biologics (+15.7%) and Alteogen (+13.3%).

 

  • Risk factors: Hanmi Pharmaceutical's shares plunged 9.35% that day on heightened uncertainty after its partner Merck (MSD) made no mention at the conference of clinical results for its MASH treatment (efinopegdutide).
 

 

JPM Healthcare Conference 2026 Key Takeaways

The global trends confirmed at this year's conference are 'diversification of obesity treatments,' 'the ADC technology war' and 'competition in CDMO production.'

 

đź’Š Obesity/metabolic diseases

  • Competition in oral formulations: The market is shifting from injectables to oral (pill) formulations. Novo Nordisk is accelerating the launch of oral Wegovy, and Eli Lilly the development of oral orforglipron.
 
  • New mechanisms: Beyond GLP-1 monotherapies, combination therapies that boost weight-loss effects by pairing with new mechanisms such as amylin are drawing attention.
 

 

🏭 CDMO (capacity expansion)

 

  • Samsung Biologics: Plans to secure overwhelming production capacity (1.32 million liters) by considering a U.S. plant (up to 100,000 liters) and adding Plant 8 by 2032.
 
  • Lonza: Announced that CDMO demand is structurally robust and is expanding capacity in the U.S., Switzerland and elsewhere.
 
  • BIOSECURE Act: Tighter U.S. regulation of Chinese companies (the BIOSECURE Act) is expected to benefit non-Chinese CDMO companies such as Samsung Biologics.
 

 

🤝 Major big deals

 

  • Eli Lilly: Signed an AI-based drug discovery partnership with Nimbus and acquired Ventyx.
     
  • AbbVie: In-licensed a PD-1 x VEGF bispecific antibody (RC148) from China's RemeGen.
     
  • Roche: In-licensed an ADC pipeline asset (YL201) from Medilink.
 

 

 

Top 10 Investment Issues to Watch in 2026

The report selected, in order of importance, the issues investors must check this year.

 
  • Hanmi Pharmaceutical (No. 1 in importance): Whether its MASH treatment succeeds in Phase 2 trials, and commercialization approval for Korea's first obesity treatment. If successful, the company could be re-rated.
 
  • Alteogen: Keytruda SC sales trends and whether additional technology transfer deals are concluded. Without technology transfers, there is pressure for a valuation adjustment.
 
  • LigaChem Biosciences: Entry of LCB84 (TROP2 ADC) into global Phase 2 trials and whether J&J exercises its option (a milestone of about 200 million dollars).
 
  • ABL Bio: Entry of ABL301 (brain disease treatment) into global Phase 2 trials and release of ABL111 clinical data.
 
  • Celltrion: Improved cost ratio as new products such as Zymfentra account for a larger share of sales, and concrete steps into the CDMO business.
 
  • D&D Pharmatech: Announcement of global Phase 2 results for its MASH treatment (scheduled for May).
 
  • OliX: Global Phase 1 results for its MASH treatment (end of Q2).
 
  • Seers Technology: Domestic hospital penetration of its inpatient monitoring system (thynC) and results of overseas expansion.
 
  • Daewoong Pharmaceutical: Outcome of its lawsuit with Medytox and export growth of Nabota/Fexuclue.
 
  • Yuhan Corporation: Global sales performance of Leclaza (lazertinib).
 

 

Eugene Investment & Securities Top Picks and Target Prices

The report named companies with clear earnings growth and R&D momentum as its top picks.

 

CompanyRatingTarget priceKey investment points
Samsung BiologicsBUY2,300,000 won (raised)

2026 EPS estimate raised 30%. Benefits from Plant 5 starting operations (April 2026) and the rising exchange rate. Strengthening its position as the global No. 1 CDMO.

 
 

 

LigaChem BiosciencesBUY210,000 won

LCB84 entering Phase 2 trials and expectations of additional technology transfers. Holds a world-class ADC pipeline.

 
 
 

 

ABL BioBUY230,000 won

The value of its bispecific antibody platform (Grabody) has been proven. Entry into Phase 2 trials with Sanofi brings milestone inflows and a rise in pipeline value.

 
 
 

 

Seers TechnologyBUY180,000 won

Leading Korea's digital healthcare market. Expected to turn profitable in 2025, with entry into the U.S./Middle East markets becoming visible in 2026.

 
 

 

 

 

Changes in Policy and the Macro Environment

 

  • Healthcare policy in Trump's second term: Pressure to cut drug prices is expected to intensify through 'The Great Healthcare Plan.' In particular, if MFN (most-favored-nation pricing linked to the lowest overseas prices) legislation becomes a reality, there is a risk of falling drug prices in the U.S..
 
  • IRA (Inflation Reduction Act): Price cuts on the first 10 drugs took effect on January 1. This could affect the profitability of Big Pharma.

 

 

Upcoming Key Dates

 

  • January 26: Samsung Epis Holdings earnings release.
 
  • January 28: Lonza earnings release.
 
  • First half of 2026: Early Phase 3 results for Hanmi Pharmaceutical's obesity treatment and Phase 2 MASH results.