J.P. Morgan's 9 Promising European Consumer Stocks for 2026

J.P. Morgan's 9 Promising European Consumer Stocks for 2026

Market overview

 

[Sector environment] The European consumer goods market is currently under macro pressure due to overall weak demand and weakening pricing-power momentum. 

As the effect of price increases diminishes with slowing inflation, volume growth has become important.

 

[Selection criteria] J.P. Morgan selected 9 companies capable of differentiated performance even in this unfavorable environment. 

The three key selection criteria are as follows.

 

  • Solid Earnings
  • Strong Financials
  • Market Position

 

 

Analysis of promising stocks by sector

 

A. Alcoholic beverages and drinks

The sector with the most stocks selected (4), where cost reduction and portfolio expansion are the key investment points.

 

1. Carlsberg (CARLb)

2025 outlook: Organic revenue expected to contract -0.7%, EBIT expected to increase +3.4% (lower end of guidance).

2026 outlook: Revenue expected to rebound +3.9%.

Investment point: Expected to defend profitability through cost-cutting efforts and expansion of its soft drink portfolio. Management is judged likely to present conservative guidance to manage market expectations.

 

2. Heineken (HEIN)

2025 outlook: Organic revenue +1.1%, EBIT growth +4%.

2026 outlook: Slight volume recovery of +0.7%, organic revenue increase of +3.3%.

Investment point: Due to the CEO change, the new management is likely to set initial EBIT guidance conservatively. A gradual recovery is expected.

 

3. Anheuser-Busch InBev (ABI)

2025 outlook: Organic revenue +1.8%, EBITDA growth +4.9%. Continued volume pressure.

2026 outlook: Flat volume, organic revenue growth +3.2%.

Investment point: Volume growth is limited, but it is analyzed to pursue profit growth through improved price mix and a margin-rebuilding strategy.

 

4. Coca-Cola (KO)

2025 outlook: High growth with organic revenue +7.7% and EBIT +10.6%.

2026 outlook: Continued growth with revenue +6% and EBIT +9.2%.

Investment point: Top pick in the soft drink segment. Stable growth is expected as it presents solid earnings guidance in line with its medium-term growth algorithm.

 

B. Consumer staples and food ingredients

Position in the Chinese market and margin improvement are the main drivers.

 

5. Danone (DANO)

2025 outlook: Q4 organic revenue +4.1%, annual growth +4.3%.

2026 outlook: Stable growth of around 3~5% maintained.

Investment point: Strength in the Chinese market and steady performance in Europe stand out. Expected to offset risks through a balanced regional portfolio and margin expansion.

 

6. Kerry Group (KYGa)

2025 outlook: Q4 volume increase of +3.1%.

2026 outlook: Volume +3.4%, target of improving EBITDA margin to 18.5%.

Investment point: Top Pick in the consumer ingredients segment. It is outperforming its end markets and plans to focus on high-single-digit EPS growth and margin improvement.

 

C. Personal care and beauty

The key is a volume rebound driven by recovery in emerging markets and easing pricing policies.

 

7. Unilever (ULVR)

2025 outlook: Q4 growth of +3.8% (volume +1.8%).

2026 outlook: Volume accelerating to +2.7%, overall growth expanding to +3.9%.

Investment point: Stopping excessive price increases and focusing on volume recovery. Consumption recovery in emerging markets in particular is expected to drive earnings improvement.

 

8. Beiersdorf (BEIG)

2025 outlook: Q4 consumer segment +4.4%, group-wide growth +2.4%.

2026 outlook: Consumer segment growth of 2~4%, stabilization of EBIT margin.

Investment point: Preferred stock in beauty and personal care. Its 2026 outlook is somewhat cautious, but its ability to defend margins is assessed to remain valid.

 

D. Tobacco

 

9. Imperial Brands (IMB)

Outlook: Positive view maintained through 2026.

Investment point: Strengths are its strong cash-flow generation and shareholder return policy. It is rated highly relative to peers in terms of earnings per share (EPS) growth and shareholder returns such as dividends.

 

 

Summary and investment strategy

 

[Key summary]

 

  • Growth: Coca-Cola HBC (CCH) and Danone (DANO) stand out most in terms of revenue growth.

 

  • Stability: Imperial Brands (IMB) excels in defensive characteristics and cash flow.

 

  • Turnaround: Unilever (ULVR) and beer stocks (CARLb, HEIN, ABI) are seeking an earnings rebound through volume recovery and margin improvement.

 

  • [Conclusion] In the 2026 European consumer goods market, rather than explosive top-line growth, strengthening fundamentals (margin defense, cost reduction) and a gradual recovery in volume will be the key to share price differentiation. Investors should focus on whether each company meets its guidance and on improvements in cash flow, rather than simple revenue growth.